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Resumo
Economic growth remains below
pre-COVID-19 levels, mainly owing to protracted
macroeconomic instability. Economic growth is estimated at
3.7 percent for 2023, with positive contributions from the
services sector (for example, tourism, transport, and
logistics) and mining. Electricity generation, mostly from
hydropower plants, was tempered by low rainfall. Meanwhile,
foreign investment increased substantially, linked mainly to
the electricity and mining sectors. In contrast, public
spending and household consumption remained constrained by
limited fiscal space and high inflation. Merchandise export
growth was limited, affected by supply-side constraints (for
example, labor shortages) and subdued external demand. Amid
limited foreign exchange liquidity and high external debt
service obligations, depreciation and inflationary pressures
persist. In 2023, the annual average official kip/US dollar
exchange rate weakened by 31 percent, while the average
parallel rate depreciated by 27 percent. The parallel
exchange rate premium was about 13 percent in March 2024.
Depreciation appears to coincide with periods of large
public debt service repayments, usually between March and
September. Given the high import dependence, depreciation
brings changes in domestic prices. Headline inflation
averaged 31 percent in 2023 and remained at about 25 percent
for eight consecutive months from August 2023, with food,
transport, hotel, and restaurant price increases the main
contributors. In 2024, real GDP is projected to grow by 4
percent as potential growth will remain constrained by
structural challenges. This outlook assumes no new debt
service deferrals in 2024 and beyond, while deferrals
accumulated during 2020–2023 would continue to be deferred.
Economic activity is expected to benefit from recovered
performance in tourism, transport and logistics services,
and investment in the power sector and some special economic
zones. Despite the slight uptick this year, economic growth
will remain below pre-COVID levels, weighed down by
macroeconomic instability and structural constraints such as
a shortage of skills, both in quality and quantity, and a
challenging business environment.
