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Human Development Expenditure Trends in the Middle East and North Africa: The Fiscal Angle of a Tumultuous Decade - Background Paper

Washington, DC: World Bank

🛡CC BY-NC 3.0 IGOPermitted use with attribution

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Abstract

To achieve better results in human development (HD), Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries encounter numerous fiscal risks and challenges. The public sector has been oversized in many countries, crowding out the private sector and muting future sustainable growth prospects. Simultaneously, energy and food subsidy spending remains widespread and inefficient, making MENA governments vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. In addition, debt levels are soaring and are multiple times the amounts spent on HD. The fiscal horizon is further dimmed by the slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic followed by high inflation in the past several years. Amid these challenges and risks, MENA governments have pursued various vectors in terms of HD spending. This paper examines these vectors using a novel dataset - for detailed methodology and the dataset - that consolidates government spending on education, health, and social protection in the MENA region. HD spending pathways in MENA countries are characterized by the analysis of HD spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) since 2005-2009. The data were then compared to total government spending and transformed into real per capita terms for 2015-2022.

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