Vietnam Macro Monitoring, December 2024

Washington, DC: World Bank

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Abstract

Industrial production improved in November 2024, driven by an increased production of key export and manufactured products. While staying in expansionary territory, Vietnam’s PMI inched down slightly from 51.2 in October to 50.8 in November as the growth of new orders softened. Exports and imports growth continued to slow, driven by a contraction of tech exports (phones and equipment) and a small deceleration of non-tech exports (including footwear and textiles) due to weaker global demand and lingering supply chain disruptions caused by typhoon Yagi. Year-on-year export growth moderated from 10.2 percent y/y in October to 8.2 percent y/y in November. Mirroring the moderation of export growth, import growth decelerated from 13.6 percent y/y in October to 9.8 percent y/y in November. The trade balance registered a small surplus of 1.1 billion US dollars in November 2024 and totaled US 23.8 billion dollars in the first 11 months of 2024. Revenue collection during the first 11 months of 2024 was 16.1 percent higher than during 2023 due to improved economic activities. Revenue collection reached 106.1 percent of what had been planned for 2024. The public investment disbursement rate accelerated from 52.3 percent of the Prime Minister’s approved budget allocation in October 2024 to 73.5 percent in November 2024. However, it remained slightly below the 76.5 percent disbursement rate from the same period of last year.

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